This map was made based on current polling and adjusted by adding the difference of the very incorrect 2016 polls. In this current map, only Florida and Arizona would need to go to Trump to win 270. The most recent flip we made was Biden tilt to Trump Tilt in Wisconsin. North Carolina is also a Trump tilt now. If we created this map based on the current polls, Trump would be losing Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Ohio. As we get closer we will be adding other factors to this map. We will update every time this changes.
Rank of Chances for a Trump Flip
1. Arizona (-2.5%)
2. Michigan (-2.8%)
3. Pennsylvania (-3.4%)
4. New Hampshire (-4.6%)
5. Minnesota (-5.8%)
6. Florida (-6.1%)
7. Nevada (-7.2%)
8. Maine (-8.4%)
9. Virginia (-11.4%)
